Teacher Facilitation & Monitoring Guide — Severe Weather Prediction & Data Analysis

: Severe Weather Prediction & Data Analysis

TEACHER WRITE-IN PAGE v3.1
NGSS: MS-ESS2-5, MS-ESS3-5, MS-ESS3-3 | 100 pts | ~75 min/day

3-PERIOD CLASS TRACKER (Write student names needing follow-up)

Period 3An=17 | T3: 4

Day 1

Misconception:

Vocab gap:

Off-task:

Day 2

Misconception:

Vocab gap:

Off-task:

Period 6An=14 | T3: 12

Day 1

Misconception:

Vocab gap:

Off-task:

Day 2

Misconception:

Vocab gap:

Off-task:

Period 7An=9 | T3: 3

Day 1

Misconception:

Vocab gap:

Off-task:

Day 2

Misconception:

Vocab gap:

Off-task:

STATION MONITORING NOTES

S1 MY RESPONSE:

S2 MY RESPONSE:

S3 MY RESPONSE:

S1 LAP NOTES:

S2 LAP NOTES:

S3 LAP NOTES:

INTERVENTION PLANNING

Type	Students	Priority
Vocab Gap		HML
Misconception		HML
Procedural Error		HML
Incomplete Mechanism		HML

FLEXIBLE GROUPING

Group A

Focus:

Students:

Reteach:

Group B

Focus:

Students:

Reteach:

Group C

Focus:

Students:

Reteach:

Group D

Focus:

Students:

Reteach:

LESSON FLOW — DAY 1 (75 min)

Time	Component	Teacher Action	KEPT
0–5	Opening Routine	Attendance, Chromebooks. DQ on student page. EW Pre-Write #1.	1
5–15	Hook (12 pts)	Phenomenon (student page). EW Hook form. TT AT#1. CC Partner predictions.	45
15–23	2/2/2 Cycle #1	EW 2 min. TT 4 min (switch@2). CC 2 min partner reports.	34
23–25	Transition → S1	"Pencils down. Eyes up." Navigate to S1 form. 30-sec timer.	2
25–43	Station 1 (20 pts)	Weather Data Collection. 3-Lap monitoring (P5). SJ Worksheet S1 notes.	15
43–45	Brain Break	Stand, stretch, 30-sec partner share.	2
45–60	Direct Instruction	Key concept modeling. Think-aloud. TT mid-DI check.	13
60–65	2/2/2 Cycle #2	EW 1 min. TT 2 min. CC 2 min.	4
65–73	Day 1 Check-In	EW Worksheet Check-In. Confidence rating. Collect/scan.	5
73–75	Closing	Preview Day 2. Chromebooks closed.	1

LESSON FLOW — DAY 2 (75 min)

Time	Component	Teacher Action	KEPT
0–5	Quick Review	Review Day 1. CC 2–3 students.	1
5–20	Station 2 (20 pts)	Pattern Recognition. 3-Lap monitoring (P6). SJ Worksheet S2 notes.	15
20–22	Transition → S3	TT 30-sec partner share. Navigate to S3.	2
22–42	Station 3 (25 pts)	Build Your Own Forecast. 3-Lap monitoring (P6). TT AT#4 before submit.	14
42–44	Brain Break	Stand. Content-connected 30-sec share.	2
44–52	Concept Model	EW Draw model on worksheet.	4
52–55	Likert	EW Rate 5 statements + justify 2. Individual.	5
55–62	Science Circle	Circle up. Likert ratings + defend. TT Peer challenge.	34
62–72	Exit Ticket (23 pts)	Exit form. EW Independent. DQ Response on worksheet.	5
72–75	Closing	Collect worksheets. Preview next week. Shout-outs.	26

EW Everybody Writes TT Turn & Talk CC Cold Call SJ Stop & Jot KEPT: 1Content 2Culture 3Facilitation 4Ownership 5Data 6Beyond

DEANSLIST PBIS TRACKER (Tally + points awarded / - points deducted per period)

Period 1

+ −

Period 2

+ −

Period 3

+ −

COMPLETED WORKSHEET — DAY 1 ANSWER KEY ARM 1

STUDY GUIDE: Big Ideas (REF — printed on worksheet)

1. Collect and organize weather data from multiple sources | 2. Identify patterns in temperature, pressure, and humidity data | 3. Use data evidence to support weather predictions | 4. Create a complete weather forecast using multiple variables

KEY TERMS — Model Sketches

BAROMETER — Sketch: {{MODEL_SKETCH: barometer — describe the visual elements of the sketch}}

RELATIVE HUMIDITY — Sketch: {{MODEL_SKETCH: relative humidity — describe the visual elements of the sketch}}

DEW POINT — Sketch: {{MODEL_SKETCH: dew point — describe the visual elements of the sketch}}

TREND — Sketch: {{MODEL_SKETCH: trend — describe the visual elements of the sketch}}

DRIVING QUESTION — Initial Response

MODEL "I think..." RESPONSE: {{MODEL_DQ_INITIAL: Write a model initial prediction that demonstrates good scientific reasoning about "How do meteorologists use data to predict severe weather?"}}

AFTER HOOK FORM — Reflection

MODEL "I learned that..." (4/4): {{MODEL_HOOK_REFLECTION: Write model response connecting phenomenon to initial concepts}}

STATION 1 NOTES — Weather Data Collection

MODEL "I observed that...": {{MODEL_S1_OBSERVE: Specific data observations from S1 investigation}}

MODEL "This shows that...": {{MODEL_S1_SHOWS: Pattern or concept demonstrated by the data}}

MODEL "The key concept is...": {{MODEL_S1_KEY: Core scientific concept from this station}}

DAY 1 CHECK-IN

Q1: {{DAY1_CHECKIN_QUESTION}} {{MODEL_DAY1_CHECKIN: Model response demonstrating key Day 1 understanding}}

COMPLETED WORKSHEET — DAY 2 ANSWER KEY ARM 1

STATION 2 NOTES — Pattern Recognition

MODEL "The data shows...": {{MODEL_S2_DATA: Key data patterns from S2 investigation}}

MODEL "This connects to...": {{MODEL_S2_CONNECTS: Connection to prior stations or concepts}}

MODEL "I can conclude that...": {{MODEL_S2_CONCLUDE: Synthesis conclusion from S2}}

STATION 3 NOTES — Build Your Own Forecast

MODEL "The main idea is...": {{MODEL_S3_MAIN: Core design/application concept from S3}}

MODEL "This connects to what we learned because...": {{MODEL_S3_CONNECTS: How S3 integrates S1 and S2 learning}}

MODEL "I can apply this by...": {{MODEL_S3_APPLY: Real-world application of concepts}}

CONCEPT MODEL — 5 Required Elements

COMPLETE MODEL MUST SHOW: {{MODEL_CONCEPT_ELEMENTS: (1) Labeled source. (2) 2+ examples with data. (3) Arrows showing process. (4) Quantitative values. (5) Real-world connection.}}

MISCONCEPTIONS LIKERT — Correct Answers with Rationales

Statement	Correct	Rationale
1. Weather forecasts are just educated guesses—there's no scientific method behind them.	{{CORRECT_1: TRUE/FALSE (rating)}}	{{RATIONALE_1: Explain why this is true/false using evidence}}
2. Measuring weather once a day gives enough data to predict a severe storm.	{{CORRECT_2: TRUE/FALSE (rating)}}	{{RATIONALE_2: Explain why this is true/false using evidence}}
3. Meteorologists use multiple variables, measured frequently, to build reliable forecasts.	{{CORRECT_3: TRUE/FALSE (rating)}}	{{RATIONALE_3: Explain why this is true/false using evidence}}
4. Severe weather is completely random and impossible to predict in advance.	{{CORRECT_4: TRUE/FALSE (rating)}}	{{RATIONALE_4: Explain why this is true/false using evidence}}
5. Falling air pressure combined with rising humidity is a reliable signal of incoming precipitation.	{{CORRECT_5: TRUE/FALSE (rating)}}	{{RATIONALE_5: Explain why this is true/false using evidence}}

MODEL JUSTIFICATIONS: {{MODEL_LIKERT_JUSTIFICATIONS: Two model justification responses using evidence from stations}}

SCIENCE CIRCLE DEBRIEF

AHA! MOMENT: {{MODEL_AHA: Key conceptual shift students should experience}}

REMAINING QUESTION: {{MODEL_REMAINING_Q: Productive question that extends into next week}}

DAY 2 EXIT CHECK

Q1 (NEW): {{EXIT_Q1_NEW_PROMPT}} {{MODEL_EXIT_Q1: Model response applying new content}}

Q2 (SPIRAL): {{EXIT_Q2_SPIRAL_PROMPT}} {{MODEL_EXIT_Q2: Model response connecting to prior week/cycle}}

DRIVING QUESTION RESPONSE — Final Synthesis

MODEL DQ RESPONSE (8/8): {{MODEL_DQ_FINAL: Complete response using evidence from all three stations, integrating vocabulary and concepts}}

DAY 1 FACILITATION & MONITORING ARM 3 ARM 4

OPENING → HOOK (0–15 min)

TIMER: 5 minOpening Routine — Chromebooks out, DQ on student page

SAY (Opening): "Good morning scholars. Chromebooks open to the student page. While you log in, read the Driving Question on your student page and write your initial prediction in the DQ box on your worksheet. You have 2 minutes of silent writing." EW

TIMER: 10 minHook — {{PHENOMENON_NAME}}

SAY (Hook Launch): {{SAY_HOOK_LAUNCH: Script for launching the Hook phenomenon on student page. Include: attention getter, what students see on screen, key question.}}

SAY (After Phenomenon): {{SAY_AFTER_PHENOMENON: Direct students to Hook form with specific question references and time limit}} EW

2/2/2 DISCUSSION CYCLE #1 (15–23 min) EWTTCC

TIMER: 2 minPre-Write #1 → Phenomenon box on worksheet

SAY: "In your phenomenon box, write: what do you ALREADY know about severe weather prediction & data analysis? 2 minutes, silent writing."

TIMER: 4 minTurn & Talk #1 — Switch partners at 2 min

SAY: "Turn to your elbow partner. Use the stem: 'I think severe weather prediction & data analysis works by ___ because ___.' Partner A goes first — 2 minutes. [TIMER BEEP] Switch — Partner B, your turn."

TIMER: 2 minCold Call #1 — Partner reports

SAY: "[Name], what did YOUR PARTNER predict? ... [Follow-up:] What evidence supported their thinking?"

TRANSITION → STATION 1 (23–25 min)

SAY: "Pencils down. Eyes on me. [WAIT — count silently to 3.] Navigate to Station 1 form on your student page. You have 18 minutes. Your worksheet has three prompts for Station 1 notes — fill those in AS you work through the simulation. Timer starts... now."

STATION 1 — Weather Data Collection (25–43 min | 20 pts)

MODEL — Key Pattern (4/4): {{MODEL_S1_PATTERN: Concise model response showing the key data pattern from S1}}

LAP 1 — Strong StartFirst 2 min

LOOK FOR: {{LOOKFOR_S1_LAP1: Observable student behavior indicating engagement with the task}}

IF: {{MISCONCEPTION_S1_STUDENT: Common student misconception statement}}

LAP 2–3 — Vocab + Complete Thought2+ min

LOOK FOR: {{LOOKFOR_S1_LAP23: Deeper observable behavior — vocabulary use, reasoning quality}}

IF: {{MISCONCEPTION_S1_DEEP: Deeper misconception}}

BRAIN BREAK (43–45 min) → DIRECT INSTRUCTION (45–60 min)

SAY (Brain Break): {{SAY_BRAIN_BREAK_D1: 30-sec content-connected partner share prompt}}

SAY (DI Launch): {{SAY_DI_LAUNCH: Script for launching Direct Instruction — key visual on student page, think-aloud prompt}}

DI Key Points: {{DI_KEY_POINTS: 3-4 numbered key points to model during DI}} TT Mid-DI: {{MID_DI_TT: Turn and Talk prompt for mid-DI check}}

2/2/2 CYCLE #2 (60–65 min) + DAY 1 CHECK-IN (65–73 min)

SAY: EW "In your S1 notes 'key insight' area, write ONE thing that changed your thinking today. 1 minute." → TT "Turn to partner: 'My thinking changed because I learned ___.' Switch at 1 min." → CC "Hands down. [Name], how did your PARTNER's thinking change?"

SAY (Day 1 Check-In): "Last task. Worksheet page 1, Day 1 Check-In. Answer Q1. Then circle your confidence level. This is YOUR thinking — no talking. 4 minutes."

DAY 2 FACILITATION & MONITORING ARM 3 ARM 5

QUICK REVIEW → STATION 2 (0–20 min)

TIMER: 5 minQuick Review — Activate prior knowledge

SAY: {{SAY_D2_REVIEW: Script reviewing Day 1 key concepts + cold call prompts}} CC

SAY (S2 Launch): {{SAY_S2_LAUNCH: Script transitioning to S2 with time limit and worksheet reference}}

STATION 2 — Pattern Recognition (5–20 min | 20 pts)

MODEL — Key Concept (4/4): {{MODEL_S2_KEY: Concise model response for S2}}

LAP 1 — Strong StartFirst 2 min

LOOK FOR: {{LOOKFOR_S2_LAP1: Observable behavior for S2 engagement}}

IF: {{MISCONCEPTION_S2: Student misconception}}

LAP 2–3 — Vocab + Integration2+ min

LOOK FOR: {{LOOKFOR_S2_LAP23: Deeper vocab use and cross-station connection}}

IF: {{MISCONCEPTION_S2_DEEP: Deeper S2 misconception}}

TRANSITION → STATION 3 (20–22 min)

SAY: "Pencils down. TT Quick check: turn to your partner — {{TT_S2_RECAP: Quick recall prompt from S2}}. 30 seconds. [TIMER] Good. Navigate to Station 3 form. This is the design challenge — 20 minutes. Worksheet S3 notes section."

STATION 3 — Build Your Own Forecast (22–42 min | 25 pts)

MODEL — Design Response (7/7): {{MODEL_S3_DESIGN: Concise model for the highest-point S3 question}}

LAP 1 — Strong StartFirst 2 min

LOOK FOR: {{LOOKFOR_S3_LAP1: Initial S3 engagement indicator}}

IF: {{MISCONCEPTION_S3: Common S3 misconception}}

LAP 2–3 — Vocab + Trade-off2+ min

LOOK FOR: {{LOOKFOR_S3_LAP23: Academic vocabulary + systems thinking evidence}}

IF: {{MISCONCEPTION_S3_DEEP: Deeper design misconception}}

SAY (Before S3 Submit — Accountable Talk #4): TT {{SAY_AT4: Accountable Talk #4 prompt — share design with partner, defend choices}}

CONCEPT MODEL → LIKERT → SCI CIRCLE → EXIT (42–75 min)

BRAIN BREAK (42–44 min)

SAY: {{SAY_BRAIN_BREAK_D2: Content-connected 30-sec partner share}}

SAY (Model Launch): EW "Sit down. Flip to page 2 of your worksheet. In the Concept Model box, DRAW {{MODEL_DRAWING_PROMPT: What to draw}}. Use the checklist: labels, arrows, key terms. Scientific diagram, not art. 8 minutes."

SAY (Likert Launch): EW "Now — Test Your Thinking section. 5 statements. Rate each FALSE (1) to TRUE (5). Then defend TWO of your ratings. This is INDIVIDUAL — no talking. 3 minutes."

SAY (Science Circle): "Bring your worksheet. Circle up. We're sharing our Likert ratings. Rules: speak from evidence, not opinion. If someone disagrees, challenge with DATA from our stations. I facilitate — I don't give answers. You self-correct." ARM 4

SAY (Exit Ticket): "Back to seats. Navigate to Exit Ticket form on student page. This is INDEPENDENT — no talking, no notes, no partner. You have 10 minutes. When you submit the form, complete the Driving Question Response on your worksheet using evidence from ALL three stations." ARM 5

EXIT TICKET MONITORINGWatch for:

LOOK FOR: All students working independently. No phones, no partner discussion. Scan for blank screens or rapid clicking. Check DQ Response on worksheet after form submit.

RED FLAG: Student finishes exit ticket in under 3 minutes (23 pts of content).

Quietly check their screen. If submitted, review responses in real-time if possible. Note name on P1 tracker for follow-up.

QUICK REFERENCE + RETEACH PROTOCOLS ARM 5 ARM 6

TOP 3 MISCONCEPTIONS — Quick Redirect Script

1. "Weather forecasts are just educated guesses—there's no scientific method behind them." ({{FREQ_1: XX%}}) — {{REDIRECT_QUICK_1: One-sentence redirect using data}}

2. "Measuring weather once a day gives enough data to predict a severe storm." ({{FREQ_2: XX%}}) — {{REDIRECT_QUICK_2: One-sentence redirect using data}}

3. "Meteorologists use multiple variables, measured frequently, to build reliable forecasts." ({{FREQ_3: XX%}}) — {{REDIRECT_QUICK_3: One-sentence redirect using data}}

KEY DATA FOR REDIRECTION

Weather Data Collection Data

{{DATA_S1_1: Key data point from S1}}
{{DATA_S1_2: Key data point from S1}}
{{DATA_S1_3: Key data point from S1}}
{{DATA_S1_4: Key data point from S1}}

Pattern Recognition & Build Your Own Forecast Data

{{DATA_S2_1: Key data point from S2}}
{{DATA_S2_2: Key data point from S2}}
{{DATA_S3_1: Key data point from S3}}
{{DATA_S3_2: Key data point from S3}}

RETEACH PROTOCOLS

Vocab Boost (2 min):

Read term + definition aloud.
Student restates in own words.
Use term in phenomenon sentence.

Concept Fix (3 min):

"Some students think [X]."
"What evidence contradicts this?"
Guide to correct model via data.

Mechanism Bridge (3 min):

"You know WHAT — now WHY?"
Prompt cause-effect chain.
Connect back to DQ.

KEPT RUBRIC — WHAT TO DEMONSTRATE FOR ADVANCED (90%+)

1 Content

All activities aligned to MS-ESS2-5. Exemplar responses ready (P3–4). Academic language in every prompt. Content accurate 100%.

2 Culture

Positive transitions w/ brain breaks. Student names in cold calls. Shout-outs for growth. Consistent routines (not compliance scripts).

3 Facilitation

2/2/2 cycles executed (EW/TT/CC). Strategic grouping via NWEA tiers. Sci Circle = student-led. Timer + transition cues crisp.

4 Ownership

Students do the thinking: partner reports (not teacher telling), Likert self-assessment, design challenge agency. Teacher facilitates, not lectures.

5 Data Driven

CFUs at station boundaries (not mid-station). 3-Lap monitoring recorded on P1 tracker. Exit ticket auto-scored. MTSS tier flags to data meeting.

6 Beyond

Real-world phenomena. Scientist Spotlights on student page. Cross-grade connections. Family portal data entry within 24 hrs.

DATA MEETING PREP: After all 3 periods, bring: (1) P1 tracker with student names flagged per period. (2) Exit ticket auto-score summary from forms.gs. (3) Top misconception + count from 3-Lap monitoring. (4) Tier movement recommendations (who moves up/down based on this week's data vs. MAP baseline).

NOTE: student-page.html is temporarily deprecated (March 2026). All student-facing content delivered via worksheet + Chromebook forms/simulations. Teacher references to "student page" refer to the Chromebook-based landing page.