Extinction Risk Modeler (MS-LS4-1)

Pick a species. Adjust modern pressures — habitat loss, climate warming, invasive species. The model projects the population over the next 100 years and compares the extinction rate to the fossil-record background rate.

Population trajectory (100-year projection)

% pop years 0 50 100 0 50 100 10% = functional extinction
No-pressure baseline Modeled trajectory

Each species has a baseline carrying capacity and sensitivity to each pressure. The model multiplies year-over-year change by the combined pressure factor. Stop the run and tweak any slider — the trajectory re-projects from year 0.

Species & pressures

35%
1.5 °C
20%

100-year readout

Year 100 population—%
Modeled extinction rate— ×bg
Functional-extinction year—
Background rate reference~1 / Mspecies / yr
Pick a species and adjust pressures — the model recalculates as you change them.

Bridge to Station 3 & Exit Ticket: Use the modeled rate to answer the sixth-extinction integration question. A modeled rate >100× the fossil background rate matches the Big Five mass-extinction signal you saw in Station 2.